Answer:
3 Because there are only three bells that aren't being run there for three additional ways that the bells could be rung
The final probability is the weighted average of the playing probabilities calculated over the possible weather options:
P(john practices cello; given that it rains) * P(it rains) +
P(john practices cello; given that it does not rain) * P(it does not rain) =
0.6 * 0.7 + 0.4 * 0.3 = 0.54
The probability is 54%
