Answer:
0.2416
Step-by-step explanation:
P(forgot to water | dead) = P(forgot and dead) / P(dead)
->With water it will die with probability 0.45
P(watered and dead) =0.83 x 0.45 = 0.3735
->Without water the plant will die with probability 0.7
P(forgot and dead) = (1-0.83) x 0.7 => 0.17 x 0.7 =>0.119
P(dead) = P(watered and dead) +P(forgot and dead)
P(dead) = 0.3735 + 0.119= 0.4925
P(forgot to water | dead) =0.119 / 0.4925= 0.2416
Therefore, the probability the neighbor forgot to water the plant is 0.2416