To get -4 from 1, we must either subtract 5 from 1 or mult. 1 by -4. Unfortunately subtracting 5 from -4 does not result in 9, and mult -4 by -4 does not result in -16. So neither "works" in predicting the next term.
Can you think of any other experiments to do that would help you discover the pattern 1, -4, 9, -16?